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China-USA CO2 deal: een historische mijlpaal in het globale gevecht tegen klimaatverandering

12 november 2014 in In de media

Na 20 jaar moeizaam onderhandelen is de overeenkomst tussen China en Amerika de markering van de start naar de oplossing voor de destructieve opwarming van de aarde. Obama is met zijn team 9 maanden in het diepste geheim in onderhandeling geweest met de Chinese regering. Het is waarschijnlijk geheim gehouden om sabotage vanuit de klimaatsceptici te voorkomen, vermoed ik. Het akkoord is opmerkelijk en in aanloop naar de klimaattop in Parijs een zeer belangrijk duurzaam signaal voor de andere wereldmachten. Naast de noodzaak om de smog te verminderen is het voor China ook zeer lucratief om commercieel actief te zijn in het ontwikkelen en leveren van duurzame technologieën.

Ik vindt dit hoopgevende ontwikkelingen en blijf deze op de voet volgen!

 

Barack Obama and Xi Jinping : Carbon cuts talks

Barack Obama and Xi Jinping : Carbon cuts talks

Barack Obama and Xi Jinping :

Carbon cuts talks US president Barack Obama and

Chinese president Xi Jinpinghave struck a historic deal

on carbon emissions – but there is still a long way to go.

Photograph: Greg Baker/AP

Lees hier het volledige artikel in de Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2014/nov/12/china-us-carbon-deal-a-historic-milestone-in-the-global-fight-against-climate-change

 

Milieudefensie zegt hier het volgende over: ( via facebook)
Je hebt het misschien al meegekregen – vandaag tamelijk onverwacht klimaatnieuws: China en de Verenigde Staten zijn onderling overeengekomen allebei een doel te stellen om hun CO2-uitstoot terug te dringen.

Hier onze toelichting op het nieuws, en onze reactie:

De VS zeggen nu dat ze hun uitstoot van broeikasgassen tussen 2005 en 2025 met 26-28 procent willen verlagen. Dat lijkt misschien veel, maar daarmee speelt de VS wel cijferverstoppertje. Het UNFCCC, het klimaatbureau van de VN, gebruikt namelijk altijd één vast basisjaar om emissiedoelen te kunnen vergelijken (al sinds het Kyoto-protocol). Dat officiële basisjaar is 1990. Omdat de VS tot nog toe klimaatbeleid hebben ‘uitgesteld’, is hun uitstoot tussen 1990 en 2005 flink gestegen.

Om de cijfers recht te trekken – en het juiste basisjaar te hanteren: Obama heeft het nu over een emissiereductie van ongeveer 15 procent in 2025, ten opzichte van 1990.

China is als opkomende economie er ‘nog niet aan toe’ om tot een netto uitstootverlaging te komen. Wel probeert het land al enkele jaren om (oa door verbeterde efficiëntie, en een toename van duurzame energie) de CO2-intensiteit van de groeiende economie terug te dringen, zodat de CO2-uitstoot langzamer stijgt dan de economie groeit. China wil met de uitstoot nu ‘pieken’ in uiterlijk 2030 – tot die tijd kan de uitstoot groeien, daarná moet die ook in China netto dalen.

2030 is een belangrijk jaar. Het is het richtjaar van het nieuwe klimaatverdrag, waarover volgend jaar december in Parijs tijdens een twee weken-durende VN-klimaattop overeenstemming moet worden bereikt. Ook in de EU worden daarom voor-onderhandelingen gevoerd over klimaat en energie, met doelen voor uitstoot-verlaging, energiebesparing en duurzame energie, allemaal voor het jaar 2030.

Dan nu onze reactie. Die tweeledig. Somber én optimistisch tegelijk. Wij zullen altijd zeggen dat het niet genoeg is, zolang de wetenschap heel helder aangeeft dat het inderdaad niet genoeg IS.

Nou, dat geldt ook voor de nieuwe emissiedoelen voor 2025/2030. Ze zijn niet ambitieus genoeg. Dat kunnen we illustreren:

Afgelopen september (terwijl wij de People’s Climate March liepen) hebben wereldleiders opnieuw toegezegd dat ze de opwarming van onze Aarde niet voorbij 2 graden* willen laten komen.

[*) Terwijl wetenschappelijke inzichten laten zien dat er ook bij 2 graden al enorme en onherstelbare schade optreedt, zoals verbleking van koraalriffen en smelt van vrijwel al het ijs op de Noordpool en Groenland – het is beslist geen ‘veilige grens’. Samen met ons netwerk van Friends of the Earth en talrijke andere milieuorganisaties (bijvoorbeeld 350.org) roepen wij in navolging van gezaghebbende klimaatwetenschappers op tot een mondiaal klimaatdoel van beperking van de opwarming tot niet meer dan 1,5 graden.]

Met het optellen van de nieuwe/voorlopige doelen van de drie grootste uitstoters van de wereld (China, de VS, de EU), leert wat snel rekenwerk dat deze doelen RUIM ONVOLDOENDE zijn om zelfs maar in de buurt te komen van de toegezegde 2-graden. De doelen van China, de VS en de EU tezamen horen eerder bij een scenario van 4 graden opwarming. Hier een goed artikel met extra duiding:

http://www.chrishopepolicy.com/…/the-us-china-climate-deal…/

4-graden-opwarming is een scenario waarin de landbouwproductiviteit wereldwijd drastisch omlaag gaat, ook de West-Antarctische ijskap verloren gaat, weersextremen en zeespiegelstijging enorme economische schade brengen, de Amazone een verdroogd savannelandschap wordt en veel positieve terugkoppelingen in het klimaatsysteem, zoals methaanemissies uit de toendra en de diepzee, CO2-uitstoot door het oplossen van kalk in verzuurde oceanen en verdroging van taigawouden, de opwarming zelfs nog verder dreigen te versnellen. Hierbij zal bovendien een groot deel van de Aarde biodiversiteit uitsterven, in wat ecologen de ‘Holocene massa-extinctie’ noemen – de nachtmerrie.

Kortom, China, de VS en de EU tekenen met de nu-voorgestelde doelen voor een planetaire catastrofe – én komen simpelweg hun 2-graden-toezegging niet na.

Het is alleen nog geen 2030. Het is nog geen Parijs. De doelen zullen simpelweg tussen nu en 2016 moeten worden opgeschroefd. Nederland en Europa laten een enorm potentieel op energiebesparing liggen. Dat geldt ook voor de VS. Als de ambitie daar wordt vergroot, gaat zonder enige kostenpost(!) de uitstoot veel verder omlaag, terwijl bijvoorbeeld ook de energieafhankelijkheid van onze fossiele leveranciers (Nederland: steenkool en olie, straks óók gas) drastisch terugloopt. Inderdaad, in het belang van iedereen!

Maar ondanks alle aanmerkingen hierboven, is de onderlinge deal tussen China en de VS toch ook goed nieuws:

De wereld is er niet stabieler op geworden in het afgelopen jaar. Door ruim vóór Parijs gezamenlijk naar voren te treden geven de twee grootste uitstoters een belangrijk diplomatiek signaal af: de wereld zal moeten samenwerken op dit cruciale thema. De doelen voor 2025 en 2030 zijn bovendien een open uitnodiging naar veel andere landen om nu ook weer een stap voorwaarts te doen. En dat is hard nodig.

 

Vanzelfsprekend zullen wij er ook bij zijn, volgend jaar in Parijs. Samen met onze vrienden van Friends of the Earth. Samen met de voltallige mondiale klimaatbeweging. Hopelijk ook samen met jou. We kúnnen dit onderwerp simpelweg niet laten wegslippen.

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